When Uber first went live in San Francisco in May 2010, no one could’ve imagined how instrumental the company would be in the rise of the gig economy and the paradigm shift it would trigger in the nature of the employer-employee relationship.
By the mid-2010s, the basic value proposition of many organizations was to provide “Uber for X” i.e. leveraging the economic fundamentals of the gig economy, where organizations replace full-time employees with independent workers/contingent workers/freelancers, in order to provide consumers or businesses with an on-demand service.
The coming decade will bring steady growth to the gig economy, driven by increased adoption across sectors. A recent McKinsey survey revealed that 70% of executives expect to use more temporary workers and freelancers two years from now, especially in the accommodation, food services and healthcare sector.1 Organizations will have to adapt and revise their operating model to cater to this growing segment of workers and will need to respond to the changing regulatory landscape as governments introduce legislation to protect workers.
To date, most of the employment gains in the gig economy have been among blue-collar workers and have been driven by the growth of organizations in the ridesharing, delivery, and e-commerce space. Due to limited worker rights, there has also been some backlash against the gig economy and its exploitative nature, with employment lawsuits filed against gig employers. However, today we will share why the gig economy is not only here to stay but will continue to grow exponentially over the next decade, whilst seeing increased adoption amongst white-collar workers. The gig economy of the future will look different in two primary ways:
Based on a recent report by Mastercard, the global digital gig economy generated $204B of gross volume in 2018, with the projected volume expected to reach $455B by 2023.2 Today, 36% of Americans are part of the gig economy in some capacity3 and gig workers could represent more than half of the country’s workforce by 2027.4 A similar growth story is underway in other areas of the world, with freelancing growth outpacing employment growth in the European Union.5
After the 2008 recession, corporate layoffs led to record high unemployment. Increasing globalization, advent of technology, decentralization of operations and changing workforce demographics modified working preferences, with organizations and individuals opting for independent work either out of choice or necessity.
Many parallels can be drawn between the 2008 recession and the current black swan event of COVID-19, where we are again seeing corporate layoffs, record high unemployment, and unprecedented disruption in where and how people work. Based on a report from McKinsey Global Institute, 87% of organizations are either experiencing a skills gap today or expect to face them in the next few years.6 In another study conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in partnership with Harvard Business School, 40% of executives said that they expected gig workers to account for an increased share of their organization’s workforce7, but only 28% of the organizations believe that they are ready to address the changing landscape.8
The economic impact of 2020 will serve to drive increased adoption of the gig economy, particularly amongst white-collar, highly educated professionals. An excellent case-in-point here is Bosch Management Support GambH, a subsidiary of the Germany company Robert Bosch GambH, that was created to manage a 1700+ on-call contingent workforce. The on-call contingent workforce is comprised of expert resources brought in to consult on various initiatives across different functions like R&D, sales, production, finance, sales and marketing. Philips did something very similar with the launch of Philips Talent Pool. Furthermore, EY’s launch of www.gignow.com, offering rapid onboarding for 400+ roles at a time reflects the growth of the gig economy in the professional services sector.
From an employer perspective, leveraging gig/freelance workers can be a strategic move, especially when we consider the direct and indirect cost savings associated with this model. Based on data provided by Bureau of Labor Statistics on “Total employer Costs for Employee Compensation for Private Industry Workers”, we see that organizations save up to 30% of labor costs when using gig workers compared to full-time employees.9
Pre-pandemic, the cost savings associated with leveraging gig workers was the primary reason organizations were codifying tasks and completing them with the help of outside workers. However, COVID-19 has caused major disruption to the way we work, and workforces are increasingly becoming more dispersed and remote. In this environment, leveraging gig workers and their individual skills will help organizations tap into a broader, global pool of resources to drive innovation and agility, especially as the gig economy extends into white collar industries.
To drive rapid value creation in this evolving ecosystem, organizations will need to think about the relationship with these gig workers on a more strategic level. Organizations need to have the right technology infrastructure in place, along with established processes, to help HR and Payroll teams efficiently and effectively complete the loop of Recruitment --> Onboarding --> Payment --> Offboarding. On the flip side, employers who invest in culture and technology can also mitigate the risk of losing their high potential employees to gig work permanently: 87% of freelancers say they won’t go back to working for anyone.10 If gig workers won’t go back to working for someone else, a negative gig employee journey will create a perpetual struggle to source talent.
In the U.S., traditional employees have multiple protections like minimum wage and overtime protection under the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), the right to form unions and collectively bargain under National Labor Relations Act, the ability to collect unemployment insurance in case of job loss, workers compensation in case of workplace injury, paid sick and medical leave and employer contributions to Social Security and Medicare. However, these regulations don’t apply to gig workers, who tend to have no minimum wage guarantee, no paid/sick leave, no right to form unions and no recourse in the event of a job loss, injury or wrongful termination.
However, some forward-thinking state and federal governments are now waking up to the realization that policy changes have not kept pace with the rise of the gig economy, and they are now introducing legislation to level the power dynamic between organizations and individuals. One example is California, which recently introduced new legislation like California Assembly Bill 5 (AB5)11 that redefines the status of employees and contractors, which has been the catalyst for similar laws across North America, with multiple states like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, etc. now introducing legislation to address the needs of gig economy workers.
A similar trend is emerging around the world. Australia requires organizations to pay at least 25% higher wages to workers with irregular hours and no employment guarantee12; Ireland has modified the definition of self-employment13; Dutch government has established a taskforce to study the phenomenon14; while the UK government has stepped up its vigilance with regard to IR-35 regulations.15
In summary, here are some key takeaways to help businesses keep ahead of the gig economy’s emerging requirements:
 What 800 executives envision for the postpandemic workforce, McKinsey & Company, 2020
 The Global Gig Economy: Capitalization on a $500B Opportunity, Mastercard and Kaiser Associates, 2018
 The Gig Economy and Alternative Work Arrangements, Gallup Inc., 2018
,  The Gig Economy Goes Global, Morgan Stanley, 2018
 Beyond hiring: How companies are reskilling to address talent gaps, McKinsey Global Institute, 2020
 The New Freelancers: Tapping Talent in the Gig Economy, BCG and HBR, 2019
 Global Human Capital Trends Survey, Deloitte, 2019
 Economic News Release, BLS, June 2020
 Matthew Taylor, Good work: The Taylor review of modern working practices, 2017
 Fair Work Ombudsman
 The New Freelancers: Tapping Talent in the Gig Economy, BCG and HBR, 2019
 Netherlands: Govt launches investigation into self-employment contracts used by co's like Uber & Deliveroo following strike action, Business & Human Rights Resource Centre, 2018
 April 2021 changes to off-payroll working for intermediaries, Gov.UK, 2020
Alastair leads Ceridian’s Value Advisory practice in Europe. He has a background in retail field and head office roles with Argos followed by 10 years’ experience in HR change roles with Accenture and EY. He is an APMG accredited Change Trainer and holds a MA from the University of St Andrews.View Collection
The Ceridian Institute provides forward-looking insights that build awareness and advocacy of the trends and challenges facing the workplace. The Institute is composed of industry leaders from Ceridian’s Industry, Value, and Solution advisories, reflecting the team’s research into the future of work and business intelligence.View Collection
Roshan is part of Ceridian’s Value Advisory practice, a team dedicated to bringing strategic thinking, project management, and technology together to help shape the transformation agenda for senior HR and business leaders. He has 9+ years of experience and holds an MBA from the Schulich School of Business.View Collection